In the early Asian session on August 6, spot gold continued the strong performance from the previous session, breaking through the $4,300/ounce psychological level for the first time since June 18; NYMEX gold futures even briefly touched above $4,360. In the previous trading session, London spot gold surged 4.16% to close at $4,247, marking the largest single-day gain since February 2026, while silver also rose 4.26% to above $62. In just two trading sessions, the precious metals market sentiment has rapidly switched from "wait-and-see" to "excited," catching many investors off guard—after the sharp rise, is it time to chase highs or wait for a pullback to enter?
Trigger: Small Non-Farm Data Surprise, Rate Hike Expectations Quickly Fade
The most direct catalyst for this round of market movement was the unexpectedly weak US July ADP employment data. Data showed that private sector employment in July only increased by 44,000, far below the market expectation of 70,000 and also lower than the revised 95,000 in June, marking the smallest increase since January 2026. The "small non-farm" data is considered a leading indicator of official non-farm data, and its unexpected weakness has gained data support for the judgment of cooling in the labor market.
After the employment data was released, the CME FedWatch tool showed that the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September rose to about 45%, significantly down from the previous "September rate hike" bets. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields simultaneously fell, directly reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold from a valuation perspective. Guo Fengda, chief analyst at Guotou Futures, pointed out that this round of sharp rise is the result of resonance from four forces: macro expectations, geopolitical situations, capital flows, and central bank allocation.
Notably, the core of this upward movement is not just one data point being below expectations, but the marginal reversal in market pricing of the Fed's monetary policy path. Previously, the hawkish narrative was relatively crowded, and when data punctured this expectation, short covering, trend-following funds, and allocation inflows叠加, making the gold price gain far exceed what conventional models could explain, showing a typical "expectation reversal" market characteristic.
Geopolitical and Capital Aspects: Hedging Premium Shrinks, Chinese Capital Strongly Returns
On the geopolitical front, Iran and Oman are reportedly close to reaching a temporary Hormuz Strait navigation agreement, with the US even stating that a US-Iran agreement could be seen within 48 hours. The marginal easing of the situation should have weakened the hedging premium, but under the dominance of macroeconomic positives, it did not suppress the rise in gold prices; instead, it allowed the "war premium" bubble component to be squeezed out, making the structure of this upward movement healthier.
In terms of capital flows, Goldman Sachs' commodity research team listed "Chinese capital re-entering the market" as the most important immediate trigger for this round of market movement. Their monitoring shows that the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold holdings increased by about 19,000 lots (about 6%) in a single day, a rare scale of position increase in three years; Chinese gold ETFs have also continued to receive net inflows, with Huaan Gold ETF having 16 consecutive trading days of net inflows, totaling about 6 billion yuan. This reflects two layers of logic: after gold prices fell to around $4,000, medium to long-term capital allocation willingness significantly increased; the阶段性 adjustment of the A-share market has also prompted some funds to shift to low-correlation assets to diversify risks, with gold again becoming the "stabilizer" of the investment portfolio.
Central Bank Gold Buying: The "Slow Variable" Throughout the Bull Market
Compared to the disturbance of short-term data and geopolitical events, global central bank gold buying is the most solid link in the medium to long-term logic of gold. According to World Gold Council data, global central banks net purchased about 289 tons of gold in the second quarter, a 62% year-on-year increase, the strongest second quarter performance on record; Poland led with 51 tons, while China increased by 33 tons. The survey shows that 89% of surveyed central banks expect official gold reserves to further increase in the next 12 months. The Bank of Korea resuming gold purchases after 13 years is more symbolic, showing that long-absent economies are beginning to re-evaluate gold's role in reserves, with gold further transforming from a traditional hedging tool to an important component of reserve asset diversification. CITIC Securities believes that the current gold price correction has approached historical extremes, and $4,000/ounce is likely the bottom area of this round, with gold prices expected to return to an upward channel within the year.
Vietnam Market Linkage: SJC Gold Bars Approach 143 Million Vietnamese Dong
The sharp rise in international gold prices quickly transmitted to the Vietnamese market. On the morning of August 6, SJC gold bars were quoted at 140.3 million Vietnamese dong/buying and 143.3 million Vietnamese dong/selling per two-tael, a single-day increase of 1.5 million Vietnamese dong; gold ring prices at Phu Quý, Bao Xing Ming Zhu and other brands also rose simultaneously, with Bao Xing Ming Zhu gold rings quoted even 1.2 million Vietnamese dong higher than SJC. Notably, the price difference between domestic Vietnamese gold prices and international gold prices has narrowed to about 6.6 million Vietnamese dong per two-tael, significantly lower than the premium levels that once soared during exchange rate volatility. The State Bank of Vietnam announced a central rate increase of 28 dong to 25,433 dong/dollar, showing that under the weak dollar background, the pressure on the Vietnamese dong exchange rate has also eased.
For Vietnamese investors, the sharp rise in international gold prices and the narrowing of domestic premiums mean that the risk-return ratio of "chasing highs" is changing: on one hand, domestic gold bars still have a premium of about 4% over international prices, so if international gold prices pull back, the downside space for domestic prices is relatively larger; on the other hand, the State Bank of Vietnam continues to tighten gold market supervision, and investors need to consider liquidity and compliance factors together, and must not ignore price difference risks when emotions are high.
Practical Strategy: Follow the Trend but Be Bullish, Refuse to Chase Highs
In the short term, the cooling of employment data has significantly boosted bull sentiment, but the Fed's anti-inflation stance has not fundamentally changed, and rate hike expectations may still fluctuate; in addition, geopolitical variables remain, and the sustainability of one-sided upward movement still needs verification. Operationally, the following key points should be grasped:
- First draw clear support and resistance: The $4,000/ounce area has formed strong capital and support, which can be seen as an important bottom observation area for this round of adjustment; upward, $4,500 is the next key resistance. If gold prices effectively break through and stabilize above this level, combined with weak economic data and continuous ETF inflows, the probability of returning to an upward channel within the year will be greatly increased.
- Build positions on pullbacks, don't chase single-day long red: After a short-term sharp rise, gold prices will likely digest gains through oscillation or pullback. Medium to long-term allocation capital should build positions in batches during the pullback process rather than chasing highs on the day of long red candles; trend trading capital should wait for key support confirmation or resistance breakthrough before following.
- Focus on Friday's non-farm data and Jackson Hole: ADP is only a vanguard; the official non-farm employment report released on August 7 is the main event; the policy signals released at the end of August Jackson Hole central bank meeting will determine the final pricing of the Fed's September path. If data continues to cool, the upward logic of gold prices will be further strengthened.
- Pay attention to internal rotation within precious metals: After gold completes directional breakthrough, silver with high elasticity has the opportunity to outperform gold. UBS reminds that silver inventories continue to decline, making the market more sensitive to new investment demand; but Standard Chartered Bank points out that the gold-silver ratio has fallen below the long-term average, and silver's high volatility has the risk of rapid reversal, making position control and stop-loss discipline particularly important.
Conclusion
A 4% single-day surge in gold prices is certainly exciting, but the discipline of practical traders lies in: not changing rhythm because of a long red candle, nor denying the trend because of short-term fluctuations. The global central bank's continuous gold buying, US fiscal credit pressure, and hedging allocation demand under the background of de-globalization continue to raise the medium to long-term price center of gold; however, short-term gains have been large, and pullback is inevitable. For investors, instead of chasing short-term emotions, it is better to respond with the discipline of "batch building positions on pullbacks, confirmation on breakthrough, and strict stop-losses," letting trends be friends rather than captives of emotions.
