On August 6, 2026, international gold prices staged a rare strong counter-attack: spot gold broke through the $4,300/ounce psychological level in intraday trading, the first time since June 18, with NYMEX gold futures further breaking through $4,360. Gold prices have surged by more than $280 from around $4,020 in a short time, marking a new high in nearly seven weeks and the largest single-day gain in six months. Just as bulls celebrate, Wall Street is simultaneously staging a rare forecast split—BNP Paribas Wealth Management boldly bets on gold prices reaching $5,000 within 12 months, while JPMorgan has cut its fourth-quarter target by 25% to $4,500. Facing the same $4,300 price, why are institutional conclusions so different? Who should investors listen to?
Round One of Bull-Bear Debate: $5,000 vs. $4,500
First, let's look at the flag bearer of the bull camp. Shafali, head of investment services for Asia at BNP Paribas Wealth Management, told Bloomberg TV that the institution expects gold and other precious metals to have significant upside potential, with gold prices possibly rising to $5,000 per ounce in the next 12 months, implying an increase of over 20% at current prices. BNP gives three main reasons: first, US dollar pressure is gradually weakening, directly reducing the holding cost of dollar-denominated gold; second, global central banks continue to strategically buy gold, with official demand providing a solid bottom for gold prices; third, gold ETF funds are expected to return, reversing the net outflow in the second quarter of this year, injecting new kinetic energy into gold prices.
In contrast, the bear (or conservative) camp, JPMorgan's commodity team cut its 2026 fourth-quarter gold forecast from $6,000 by 25% to $4,500 in early July, while estimating the third-quarter average price at around $4,300. JPMorgan's logic is equally clear: purchasing power in key demand areas has significantly weakened, and gold has become sensitive again to real interest rate changes, with gold prices potentially limited by weak demand in the short term, maintaining overall range-bound trading. Although the bank retains a long-term bullish stance, its wording of "cautious in the short term, optimistic in the long term" forms a sharp contrast with BNP's aggressive bets.
Notably, this is not just the opinion of two isolated institutions. CITIC Securities Research Department reiterated that gold is still in a bull market that began in 2015, with $4,000 likely being the bottom area of this round; Huachuang Securities released a research report stating that short-term cooling of inflation and employment data has boosted rate cut expectations, giving gold a repair window. But there are also research institutions like CPM Group estimating that gold prices will range widely between $3,800 and $4,150/$4,200 in August, with technical levels dominating short-term trends. The hundreds of dollars difference in forecasts between institutions precisely reflects the fundamental disagreement in the market's gold pricing logic.
Three Major Drivers Behind the Rally: Data, Geopolitics, and Central Banks
To understand the bull-bear divergence, we must first understand where this rally comes from. Combining market information, at least three catalysts have driven this rapid rise in gold prices:
1. US Employment Data Surprise, Rate Hike Expectations Cool
The data released by ADP on Wednesday showed that US private sector employment in July only increased by 44,000 people, far below the market expectation of 70,000 and also inferior to the previous value, with new jobs highly concentrated in a few industries like healthcare. The signal of cooling in the labor market directly weakened market expectations of the Fed starting rate hikes in September—in 2026 when inflation is still high, the Fed's policy focus is not rate cuts but rate hikes, so "cooling rate hike expectations" is a实质性利好 for non-yielding gold. Coupled with market concerns about the US economy falling into "stagflation," the US dollar index顺势 fell to near a six-week low, and the two factors together opened up space for gold prices to rise.
2. Hormuz Strait Reopening on the Horizon, Geopolitical Logic Reverses
Geopolitical factors are another key variable. According to US media reports, US Treasury Secretary Besant said that the Hormuz Strait-related agreement may be reached on August 4 or 5; Iran also stated that the agreement to reopen this key waterway with Oman is close to being finalized. For gold, this is a double-edged sword—on one hand, the reopening of the Strait eases energy-driven inflation concerns, weakening the logic of monetary policy tightening; on the other hand, the hedging premium随之收敛, gold's short-term "war premium" is being squeezed. Analysts generally believe that the impact of geopolitical factors on gold prices is shifting from suppression to assistance, because the market has already incorporated "conflict easing" into pricing, and subsequently there are fewer negative drags.
3. Central Bank Gold Buying at Record Levels, Official Demand Becomes "Safety Cushion"
The most solid support comes from official sectors. World Gold Council data shows that global central banks and other official institutions net increased gold reserves by about 289 tons in the second quarter of 2026, a 62% year-on-year increase, a historic high for the same period; its survey found that 89% of central bank personnel expect global official gold reserves to continue increasing in the next 12 months, with 45% of central banks expecting their own institutions to increase holdings. Data released by the China Gold Association on August 6 is also eye-catching: China increased gold holdings by 40.12 tons in the first half of 2026, with reserves reaching 234.645 tons by the end of June, ranking fifth globally, and has been increasing for 20 consecutive months since November 2024. This "only buying, not selling" structural demand provides an unshakable long-term bottom for gold prices.
Vietnam Perspective: SJC Gold Bars Reach 143 Million Vietnamese Dong, Premium Quickly Narrows
As a regional financial research platform, we are particularly concerned about the transmission of this round of market movement to the Vietnamese market. On the morning of August 6, domestic Vietnamese gold prices followed the international market with a sharp jump: SJC gold bars were quoted at 140.3 million Vietnamese dong/buying and 143.3 million Vietnamese dong/selling per two-tael, a two-way increase of about 1.5 million Vietnamese dong from the previous close; quotes for 9999 gold rings (gold jewelry) at PNJ, Phu Quý and other gold merchants also rose simultaneously, with bid-ask spreads maintaining the range of 140 to 143 million Vietnamese dong per two-tael. At the same time, the US dollar to Vietnamese dong exchange rate increased by 28 dong in a single day, showing that the pressure on Vietnamese dong depreciation continues.
Notably, international gold prices convert to about 137 million Vietnamese dong per two-tael, meaning the premium between domestic Vietnamese gold prices and international prices has narrowed to about 5.9 to 6.3 million Vietnamese dong per two-tael, significantly lower than the exaggerated levels that once reached tens of millions of dong. The narrowing premium is a double message for investors: on one hand, it reflects improved efficiency in domestic Vietnamese gold price following and cooling of speculative bubbles; on the other hand, it means that the "exchange rate protection layer" of "buying gold" in Vietnam has thinned, and investors must pay more attention to the erosion of actual returns by Vietnamese dong exchange rate fluctuations. For Vietnamese investors who want to participate in this round of rebound, in addition to closely watching international gold prices, they must also observe the US dollar to Vietnamese dong trend and central bank foreign exchange intervention.
Two Major Tests Ahead: Non-Farm and CPI Take Turns
At this point in the market, neither bulls nor bears dare to be complacent. This Friday (August 7), the US July non-farm employment report will be released at 8:30 PM Taipei time, with market expectations of about 91,000 new jobs, with unemployment rate and wage growth also receiving attention; followed by the US July CPI data on August 12. These two data will directly test whether the narrative of "cooling employment, controlled inflation" holds, and determine market pricing of the Fed's September rate decision.
Huachuang Securities points out that short-term employment data weakness has boosted rate cut expectations, giving gold a repair window, but whether it can continue still needs further verification from non-farm and CPI data. If non-farm continues to weaken, rate cut expectations will further cool, and gold prices may challenge the $4,500 level; conversely, if employment is unexpectedly strong, we need to guard against rapid pullbacks caused by bull profit-taking. Many institutions remind that this round of rebound "will not unfold as a V-shaped reversal" and will be accompanied by significant oscillations, and investors should not hold overly optimistic expectations for one-sided upward movement.
Conclusion: Bet on Direction or Build Strategy
Facing the huge difference between $5,000 and $4,500, ordinary investors, instead of entangling with "who to believe," should return to fundamentals to build their own response framework:
- Medium to long-term logic unchanged: The three pillars of continued US federal deficit rise, difficult geopolitical resolution, and central bank strategic gold buying remain stable, the big bull market pattern of gold has not been destroyed, and $4,000 is seen by many institutions as the bottom area of this round.
- Short-term rhythm more important than point: $4,250 to $4,300 is the current bull-bear watershed; standing above it, the next target is $4,500, or even $4,800 to $4,900; falling below may retest the $4,100 support. It is recommended to use batch allocation instead of one-time heavy positions, with strict stop-losses.
- Focus on Asian session opportunities: Experience shows that many key movements in precious metals are born in the Asian trading session, while the European and American sessions are more prone to selling pressure; changes in physical demand in Asian markets like Vietnam are gradually becoming important variables affecting global pricing.
- Diversify allocation, don't bet on single assets: Precious metals like silver and platinum have different supply-demand elasticity than gold, appropriate allocation can smooth volatility; when participating in gold investment in the Vietnamese market, be sure to manage exchange rate risks simultaneously.
In summary, BNP's $5,000 and JPMorgan's $4,500 represent two different time dimensions and risk preferences—the former bets on the medium-term trend of central bank gold buying and weak dollars, while the latter guards against short-term headwinds of weak demand and real interest rate rebounds. For investors, instead of choosing sides, it is better to understand your own holding period and risk tolerance, letting strategy serve judgment. The non-farm, CPI, and Fed statements in the next two weeks will be the touchstone to test all predictions.
