During the Asian session on August 5, 2026, the precious metals market continued its strong trend. International spot gold stabilized robustly above the $3,200 psychological level, reaching a high of $3,218/ounce; spot silver continued its fierce rally of the past month, breaking through the $45/ounce level to set a new historic high. Although less than 24 hours remain before the release of the US July non-farm employment data, market trading still shows strong bull resilience.
Gold Prices "Both Offensive and Defensive": Dual Support from Weak Dollar and Hedging Sentiment
This week, the US dollar index has continued to hover below the 92 level, pressured by weak US economic data and dovish comments from Fed officials. Market expectations for a 50 basis point Fed rate cut in September have risen, and the downward trend of real interest rates is clear, providing core support for dollar-denominated gold. Meanwhile, Middle East geopolitical tensions have not eased, global supply chain uncertainty has叠加, and hedging funds continue to flow into gold ETFs. According to World Gold Council statistics, global gold ETFs had a net inflow of 86 tons in July, the fourth consecutive month of net inflow, highlighting institutional investors' allocation demand.
From a technical perspective, gold has formed a typical bull arrangement on the daily chart, with EMA20 and EMA60 continuing to diverge upward. The short-term support zone is between $3,185 and $3,200, while the upside pressure looks toward the $3,250 level. Notably, the turnover rate around $3,200 has significantly increased, indicating that some profit-taking positions have exited, but the buying support remains strong, and the overall structure has not been damaged.
Explosive Rise in Silver: Resonance of Industrial Demand and Catch-up Logic
Compared to gold's "stability," silver's performance has been more aggressive. In the Asian session on August 5, spot silver reached a high of $45.12/ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 68%. The strong rise in silver prices is driven by both the overall precious metals bull market and its own supply-demand fundamentals: global solar photovoltaic installations continue to exceed expectations, with silver demand in photovoltaic silver paste significantly increasing; at the same time, mining supply growth is slow, and the global silver market has shown a supply-demand gap for four consecutive years.
Further, the gold-silver ratio has compressed from 85 in mid-year to around 71 currently, indicating that silver is rapidly catching up with gold's gains. Looking back at history, whenever a precious metals bull market begins, silver's elasticity is often higher than gold's. Breaking through $45 means silver has entered a new price center, and if it can stabilize effectively, the next target may look toward $48.
Vietnam Market: SJC Gold Premium Remains High, Local Demand Still Strong
In the Vietnamese market, affected by expectations of domestic currency depreciation and inflation concerns, public enthusiasm for buying gold remains unabated. Ho Chi Minh City SJC gold bar quotes have risen in tandem, with premium levels maintaining a high range of 1.2 to 1.5 million Vietnamese dong per two-tael bar. The State Bank of Vietnam has recently continued to inject gold bar supply into the market to curb premiums, but with more demand than supply, the phenomenon of queuing at gold shops has not significantly eased. Analysts point out that Vietnamese investors view gold as an important tool to hedge exchange rate risks and preserve asset value, making it difficult to change the demand structure in the short term.
Non-Farm Data Preview: Market Volatility May Intensify Tonight
Tonight, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July non-farm employment report, with market expectations of 185,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate remaining stable at 4.2%. It is worth noting that in the past two months, ADP initial jobless claims have shown divergence, indicating signs of cooling in the labor market. If the actual non-farm data is lower than expected, it will further solidify rate cut expectations and may push gold prices to challenge the $3,250 level; conversely, if the data is unexpectedly strong, precious metals may face short-term profit-taking, but the medium to long-term bull trend is unlikely to reverse.
Trading Strategy: Build Positions on Pullbacks with Strict Risk Control
For short-term traders, current gold prices are at relatively high levels, and the risk of chasing long positions is relatively high. It is recommended to wait for the non-farm data to be released before following the trend. If gold prices pull back and stabilize in the $3,185 to $3,200 range, light positions can be tested; for silver, pay attention to the support zone between $43.8 and $44.2. Medium to long-term investors can continue to hold long positions in gold and silver and add positions on pullbacks. Regardless, precious metals volatility will significantly increase after data release, so strict stop-losses and position risk control are essential.
Overall, the global central bank gold buying trend remains unchanged, geopolitical uncertainties persist, and the expectation of declining real interest rates is strong, maintaining a favorable bull environment for precious metals. Investors should respect short-term fluctuations while grasping the trend to profit steadily in this round of market movement.
