In the past few weeks, the precious metals market has fallen into a rare "reverse logic": rising Middle East tensions pushed up oil prices, higher oil prices intensified inflation concerns, inflation expectations in turn strengthened the Fed's tightening stance, ultimately suppressing non-yielding gold. However, since August 5, this logic has been completely reversed—easing signals from the Hormuz Strait,叠加 unexpectedly weak US employment data, have caused gold and silver to jointly stage a rare surge, with global funds returning to the precious metals market.
Hormuz Agreement Draft: Why Did the Geopolitical Logic Shift from Suppression to Assistance?
According to Iranian official media, Iran and Oman have reached a preliminary consensus on temporary navigation routes for the Hormuz Strait, with a joint statement entering the final drafting stage. The new arrangement may close traditional north-south navigation channels and adopt temporary new routes, expected to operate for two to four months. Although key details—including how to define Iran's "control" over passing ships, who will supervise inspections, and how to distribute the 3% to 7% passage fees—have not been finalized, and Iran has clearly stated this does not mean the Strait will "immediately fully reopen," the market has already voted with its feet: international oil prices have plummeted for two consecutive days, with WTI crude retreating to around $75, and energy-driven inflation concerns have significantly eased.
For gold and silver, this is a key logical turning point. Geopolitical risk easing lowers oil prices, oil price relief eases inflation expectations, and cooling inflation expectations weaken the Fed's case for further tightening—the multiple shackles that originally suppressed precious metals have loosened simultaneously, and funds have quickly returned. On August 5, spot gold surged 4.16% to close at $2,246.79/ounce, touching $2,267.55 intraday, a new high since June 18, the largest single-day gain since February, and breaking through the 50-day moving average; in the Asian session on Thursday, gold prices stabilized above $2,250 in high oscillation.
Small Non-Farm Data Cold: Employment Cooling Suppresses Rate Hike Expectations
If the Hormuz agreement was the ignition spark, then the weakness of US employment data was the accelerant. The ADP private sector employment report released on Wednesday showed that July新增就业仅44,000人,远低于市场预期的70,000人,也较6月的98,000人大幅放缓,创下今年1月以来最弱表现;与此同时, although the ISM services PMI remained in the expansion zone, the employment sub-index fell from 51.2 to 47.4, falling below the boom-bust line, showing a significant weakening in the service sector recruitment environment.
After the data was released, market bets on a September Fed rate hike quickly fell from nearly 70% at the beginning of the week to 55% to 59%, with some traders even pressing below 55%. The US dollar index fell to around 99.70, the 10-year US Treasury yield hovered at a one-week low, and the 2-year yield also fell to its lowest level since July 20. A weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated precious metals more attractive to non-US buyers, while lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets—the two叠加 have pushed gold prices from around $4,020 to the $4,300 area in just two trading days.
It is worth noting that the Fed's internal policy divergence is expanding. Minneapolis Fed Chair Kashkari advocates starting gradual rate hikes in September, believing that corporate profits have recovered and consumption is resilient, and inaction may solidify inflation; Philadelphia Fed Chair Paulson believes that current interest rates have formed a moderately tight effect, and there is no need to rush to act. In addition, after taking office, Chairman Vash canceled forward guidance, shortened post-meeting statements, and even considered reducing FOMC annual meetings from 8 to 6—the Fed's "quantitative" communication means the market will rely more on economic data itself, and the impact of key data releases like non-farm data may be amplified.
Silver Catch-Up: Resonance of Industrial and Financial Attributes
In this round of market movement, silver's performance has been more eye-catching. On August 5, spot silver broke through the key psychological level of $60, first standing above $61 and then $61.88, with intraday gains once expanding to 4%; in the Asian session on August 6, it even touched $62.87, a new high since July 7, before consolidating around $62. NYMEX silver also stood above $62, with the domestic Shanghai silver futures contract once surging 6%.
The upward logic of silver is consistent with gold—cooling rate hike expectations, a weaker dollar, and lower oil prices easing inflation—but叠加 the support of industrial attributes. After silver prices broke through $60, market attention to the gold-silver ratio has increased again; if non-farm data continues to be weak, silver's price elasticity may continue to outperform gold, and the gold-silver ratio may further downward revise, and investors can also pay attention to gold-silver arbitrage opportunities.
Non-Farm Night: Three Scenarios and Key Levels
Taipei time on the evening of August 7, the US July non-farm employment report will debut, with market expectations of about 83,000 to 91,000 new jobs, and the unemployment rate expected to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3%. Huachuang Securities and other institutions point out that if employment and inflation data weaken simultaneously, gold will迎来 a valuation repair window; conversely, if non-farm data is unexpectedly strong, September rate hike expectations may return, and gold prices may retest the $4,100 to $4,200 range. Scenario analysis is roughly as follows:
- Non-farm significantly below expectations (new jobs below 50,000): Rate hike expectations further collapse, gold prices may challenge $4,300 to $4,350, with silver looking toward $63 to $65.
- Non-farm meets expectations (new jobs 80,000 to 90,000): Market continues to consolidate, gold prices digest gains in the $4,200 to $4,300 range, waiting for August 12 CPI data to confirm direction.
- Non-farm strong rebound (new jobs over 120,000): Policy expectations fluctuate, gold prices may pull back to $4,150 or even $4,100, but institutions believe medium-term buying will still support.
Vietnam Gold Market Perspective: SJC Gold Bars Approach 140 Million Vietnamese Dong
As a major gold-consuming hub in Southeast Asia, the Vietnamese market has directly responded to this international round. According to local gold merchant quotes, SJC gold bars were quoted at about 139.7 million Vietnamese dong/buying and 142.7 million Vietnamese dong/selling per two-tael, with intraday price fluctuations and increased volatility; SJC and international gold prices maintained a high premium level, reflecting domestic supply-demand tensions and exchange rate expectations. Unlike the one-sided strength of international markets, domestic Vietnamese gold prices "cooled" back by several hundred thousand Vietnamese dong in the afternoon on Thursday, showing the tug-of-war between profit-taking and hedging buying at high price levels.
For Vietnamese investors, the significance of this round of rise lies not only in the absolute level of gold prices but also in the strengthening of the "asset protection" logic. The Vietnamese dong exchange rate has fluctuated more in recent years, and geopolitical and inflation uncertainties continue, making gold's allocation value as a local currency hedging tool prominent. However, it should be noted that domestic Vietnamese gold price fluctuations are often greater than international markets, and the risk of chasing high premiums cannot be ignored. Batch allocation and position control remain prudent choices.
Institutional Views: Bull Market Foundation Unchanged, But Blind Chasing of Highs Not Recommended
Shenyin Wanguo Futures believes that although short-term US-Iran conflict easing has weakened the geopolitical premium for precious metals, the medium to long-term gold price center still has continuous upward momentum: the center of global geopolitical risk has risen, political and economic order is being restructured, US fiscal pressure has intensified, the trend of de-dollarization continues, and the trend of various countries increasing gold reserves has not reversed. TD Securities reminds that current oil market fluctuations are more driven by speculative capital chasing news headlines than fundamental easing, and the risk of oil price rebound still exists, which has a dual impact on silver.
Senior market analyst Florian Grummes ended six months of观望, increasing gold positions from 50% to 80%, believing that summer gold prices may challenge around $4,500, and if breaking through the 200-day moving average at $4,490, the next target points to $4,800 to $4,900; Gabelli Gold Fund co-portfolio manager Chris Mancini reiterated the $5,000 target, emphasizing that the long-term gold bull market is far from over.
Overall, this round of gold and silver surge is the result of four-fold resonance from geopolitical easing, data cooling, dollar weakness, and capital return, with short-term momentum not yet exhausted; but non-farm data, the progress of the Hormuz agreement implementation, and Fed official statements still constitute three major variables. For practical traders, the stable approach is "don't chase highs, don't go naked short"—build positions in batches on key support, add positions after breaking previous highs, and control volatility risks from geopolitical news reversals with strict stop-losses. The gold market direction changes in an instant, only by respecting the market and operating with discipline can one profit steadily in the long bull market of precious metals.
